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Update Positioning - 8 May 2024
Intro, Capital and Legal Structure 26/01/23
Company and Merger 26/01/23
Cash Flow and Model 26/01/23
Investment Discussion 26/01/23
Please find our updated analysis here.
Although Q3 numbers and the Company’s guidance for Q4 and Q1 are similar to our projections, the release has left us with some doubt about the
AMS Osram released its Q3 results in line with previous guidance. Quick observations include weaker guidance for Q4 2024 and Q1 2025, with the
The private placement of €200m additional senior Notes, due in 2029 removes the uncertainty of AMS Osram’s liquidity in the short term. We are a little surprised that
The announcement from AMS Osram was a disappointment. Not for what it said, (the sale announced in May has closed, with the receipt of €45m) but for what
Post Q2 numbers rating agencies are striking a more cautious note on AMS Osram than us. On Thursday, Moody’s confirmed the B2 long-term rating but
Please find our updated model here.
AMS Osram reported their Q2 results, marginally better than their guidance at the time of their results in Q1. We had expected AMS Osram to
AMS Osram operationally continue to meet and slightly exceed their expectations, with Revenue in line and EBITDA above mid-point
Please find our updated analysis here.
We have invested in AMS Osram successfully over the last year and we feel now is the time to re-enter the name. There are a couple of positive event risks in the
At the Q4 results in February, AMS Osram guided that they were divesting of non-core semi-conductor businesses which generated c. €300-400m of
We had expected bonds to trade off a little as we anticipated the weaker guidance but clarification on exit costs from the microLED project coupled with
Please find our updated model here.
All good things must come to an end. AMS Osram has been a good position for us but with the refinancing behind us, it is time to exit. With sufficient cash on
AMS Osram released their Q4 and FY23 numbers today in line with their guidance and our model. More importantly, the guidance for FY24 is consistent with the
AMS Osram completed their rights issue yesterday, with the listing and admission to trading expected tomorrow (Friday 8th). This will trigger th
Post the refinancing, we have taken the opportunity to update our model here.
With the refinancing behind us, and the rights issue fully underwritten by HSBC/Morgan Stanley/UBS the next trigger is the FY23 numbers, to be reported in early February. The bonds have
Following the successful upsized raising of new High Yield bonds last week, AMS have today launched their 11 for 4 rights issue at CHF1.07 (66% discount to Friday’s closing). The prospectus was
HSBC and UBS have launched the expected €800m equivalent High Yield deal for AMS, with a call this afternoon at 4 pm UK time, with investor
Please find our updated analysis post the Q3 numbers last month here.
We have revisited the name in light of recent issuance in the high yield market. We don’t regret our decision to exit the name on the back of the
And we are off. With (at least) three High Yield bonds launched this morning, AMS Osram will be watching carefully to see the current risk
We will write a fuller email later in the day, but we don’t regret our decision to exit the name on the back of the euphoria of the refinancing plan in
AMS Osram announced sale and leaseback for c. €450m on its plants, €400m of which relates to its new Kulim 8-inch facility in Malaysia. None of the
Not ideal timing, but with approval for the rights issue now in place, we expect AMS Osram to launch its high-yield bond offering in the
Please find our unchanged analysis here.
This morning, AMS Osram presented a recapitalisation plan more comprehensive than we had expected with the Company planning to raise €800m in a discounted rights issue and €800m in new HY bonds, coupled with a sale and leaseback of €300m which will
The recapitalisation plan presented by AMS Osram management is more comprehensive than we had expected with the Company planning to raise
We are seeking further clarity from the Company but German press reports that AMS Osram has secured €300m from the federal government and
Press reports in Germany repeating the cost-cutting measures already alluded by management on recent conference calls. AMS Osram aim to lower fixed costs by 50% in its
Moody’s downgraded AMS Osram from B2 to B1 on the back of the already published weaker operating performance of 2023. Moody concurs
AMS Osram’s shares and bonds traded down yesterday on the back of Foxconn’s Q2 numbers. A closer examination shows that Q2 results were ahead of guidance, but the caution relates to Foxconn downgrading its outlook for full-year revenue
Please find our updated model here.
AMS is doing a roadshow next week with both credit and equity investors and we will try to participate in these discussions/have a direct call with the Company in the coming days. However, it is reassuring that the new management has broadly kept
AMS will hold its conference call this morning at 10 am, so a brief note on their Q2 numbers. The numbers, albeit at the top end of their guidance, aren’t the main issue. The Company has
AMS shares and bonds have both traded off yesterday and today on the back of press reports from TrendForce, a market research firm, who claim