They have good liquidity and decent assets with rent linked to CPI, independent special situations firm Sarria noted. “Raising rent can of course lead to vacancies, but that’s where it pays to hold attractive assets,” Sarria told Debtwire. “On the UK hotel portfolio, after the Queen’s funeral has been televised across the world, I assume the next ten years of UK tourism are safe.”
Read MoreIndependent special situations firm Sarria had expected late 2022 or early 2023 would be the inflection point but noted it is now happening so much earlier. They were confident in
Read MoreWolfgang Felix from Sarria told 9fin: “Management is currently prioritising getting customers into stores and driving up overall market share rather than increasing margins. This year’s objective is definitely to maximise revenue in preference to margins.”
Read MoreShould any refinancing not materialise, then there remains a risk of a debt restructuring according to a 17 June desk note from independent special situations firm Sarria.
Read More“The Amodio’s have been to the Spanish regulator and there is now a co-operation agreement between CAABSA and OHL registered with the CNMV,” Sarria said. “If EU and US infrastructure spend takes off, then
Read More“Matalan are somewhat anti-cyclical and have a track record of outperforming in crises. Last time in 2009, before the cotton spike, CVC even came with a GBP 1.5bn bid at 10x,” Sarria continued. “It’s a great performance any way you look at it. The subs are 3.5x leveraged on our math and are par paper.”
Read More“An update on liquidity would have been helpful, but it was clearly not something worth shouting about. Also the timing is now sensitive while negotiating at so many levels,” Sarria said.
They will receive a boost from the Corestate stake sale but most of the Corestate stake was held at Aggregate 2, which is separate and direct holdings were small, so that should strengthen [Aggregate shareholder] Walcher’s negotiating position, Sarria added.
Read More“Adler are marrying the pretty daughter first to generate liquidity for the treatment of the sickly daughter,” Sarria said. “They are selling good, fungible assets, which concentrates stakeholders on the riskier development book.”
Read MoreSpeaking on a real estate webinar today (14 October), Sarria analyst Tom Mannion said the refinancing negotiations would likely be "difficult" given
Read MoreSome of the [Viceroy] valuations seem accurate, according to Sarria. “We are looking at which property is in which entity and how much debt each guarantees as well as how much money each box makes or needs.”
Sarria will host a webinar at 3pm UKT this Thursday (14 October) to discuss the European high yield real estate sector. To attend, one can sign up here.
Read MoreThe market expected more cash coming in at once but it didn’t, independent special situations firm Sarria noted. “We see LTV well above the 39%, but what will they buy with the cash when it comes? Amir Dayan may have cash stashed elsewhere, but we’d really like to see the OpCos.”
“When I ride a rollercoaster, I have to have my eyes wide open,“ Sarria commented. “But some people like to go with their eyes closed. Vivion is for them.”
Read MoreSarria noted they were short earlier in the year thinking they would run out of cash, and it was “astonishing” they didn’t. “The franchise is unimpaired and the move to online still stops at their price bracket, but they are now more levered than before – despite appearances,” they commented. “The EUR 100m cashflow in June only shows that the Takko had good sales and management said as much. We can rest assured that the EUR 150m [cash balance] won’t be around at quarter end.”
Read More“To the 2024s, this announcement makes no difference,” said Sarria, an independent special situations firm. “The economics of the deal remain the same.”
Read More“This was one of our most successful trades last year and it wasn’t Covid-related – it did well for fundamental reasons. But we did not participate in the new bond as it became clear that feed prices would eat up much of the pro forma adjusted EBITDA this year,” independent special situations firm Sarria said. “The company has good liquidity and the labour shortages may be in part transitory, but EBITDA will fall further.”
Read More“This is a bet on control of the delta variant and if there is no control then they are in trouble – along with half the economy. Another lockdown would be tough but if the UK finally opens next month, then Matalan have all to play for,” independent special situations firm Sarria commented. “The second
Read More“Even though we had been long the name for most of last year, we [were] more than sceptical on just how long the run would last. Chickens don’t fly and neither does Boparan,” Sarria commented. “Last year Boparan was one of our favourite fundamental trades, but part of this was probably borrowed from the future in terms of who pays for what and when along the supply chain.”
Read MoreOnline growth will be strong, this is what supports the credit story, said Wolfgang Felix from Sarria, the credit opportunities desk. The company previously held back on its online rollout on fears of self-cannibalisation. But by the same token it has a captive customer base and will be pushing hard to maximise its IPO valuation, he said.
Read MoreWolfgang Felix at Sarria acknowledged that Douglas’ online business was now a powerful attraction for investors, but said the group would need to demonstrate more online growth and post-COVID stability before CVC could cash in on an IPO.
Read MoreAs the 2024 ad hoc group holds just north of 10% of the 2021 notes, the consent achieved as of early February means that a number of smaller 2021 investors didn’t sign up to the lock-up agreement, which is surprising given it is a really good deal for the 2021s, noted Sarria, an independent special situations firm. These holders could give consent at a later stage, but even with them on board, the company will probably fail to reach the 90% threshold, Sarria added.
Read More“The option to partially exchange for 49% of that Dutch NewCo entity doesn’t sound like a great idea," said an analyst as special situations firm Sarria. "You would have no trigger point for that paper and Intralot entertains inter-company dealings between its Greek and US entities. If instead you decide to remain 100% a creditor of the group, you would not only earn more coupon, but also have both, an implicit economic claim to the 51% of that same entity and on everything else too. While some consider the remaining group a net liability, we would certainly choose the hard maturity over theoretical economics here.”
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