Senvion, Iceland, Vallourec

All, 

Thoughts for the day:

- Senvion: the company revised 2018 guidance down to revenues of around E1.45bn and adjusted EBITDA of ~ 3.0% from E1.6bn and 5.0% previously. The latter had become unattainable following its recent reporting. We think the reduction should be entirely expected, but of course it never is and the bonds will likely drop further.
The company attributes the drop in P&L to its loss of volumes and promises to grow volumes again in 2019. But our analysis so far does not agree with that statement. Volumes in 2019 so far promise to be little better than last year and importantly prices have not recovered - nor will 
- Iceland: Tomas had to leave the office yesterday, but aside from an unhelpful reclassification of international costs, the numbers were on par with expectations. Iceland remain in good health and the results have shown that the most recently observed slide in earnings is not continuing as such. There are however two points that need further attention:
1) LFL performance was negative for the quarter, despite the fixed issues in the distribution centre. We had estimated +1%.
2) Capex is threatening to rise. Management have announced plans for a second Distribution centre in the south, requiring some further E10m investment in inventory and it plans to roll out new shops at the most recently resumed pace of nearly 50 p.a.

- Vallourec to be out with numbers this morning.


Wolfgang