Accentro - Déjà vu
All,
Please find our updated analysis here.
Accentro has got bondholder approval for its second restructuring in a year. The controlling shareholders did not want to leak any value and ensured management rejected the bids received for assets. There is no carrot for bondholders this time, but they are in a weak position relative to the banks. The lack of sales has minimized the movement of assets under the LuxCo structure. We expect to be back for yet another restructuring within 12 months. In response to the latest rescheduling, the bonds are down 9 points to 38c/€.
Investment considerations
- We see little upside in the bonds as we do not see potential buyers suddenly upping their bids significantly. The downside remains at least six points.
-We do not expect this Amend and Extend to be successful either, but with no bond redemptions to pay and bond interest missed; Accentro has bought itself some time.
- Whilst demand for housing, particularly in Berlin, is strong, Accentro cannot stand still and wait for the good times to roll.
- We will monitor progress, and if asset sales emerge, we will review our attitude.
This rescheduling offers nothing to bondholders:
- The €40m bond redemption due in December 2024 will be delayed by 12 months, and the €65m due in December 2025 moves by six months to June 2025. The market may improve, but the perception of Accentro as a distressed seller will not. We expect yet another roll of the dice next year.
- The coupon delay from (February 2024 to December 2024) is particularly raw. The fact that management could not even raise enough cash from sales to keep the bonds current should worry bondholders.
- Minority shareholders (including Adler) could contest the process, but having been silent the last time, it is unlikely they will object this time. The dilution from the €20m capital injection from new shareholders will sting, but the alternative is losing the company to the banks.
Trading update.
- Inventory property sales were 65% down on 22Q3. Individual condo sales were weak across the board, but Accentro could not execute promised Portfolio sales. Potential buyers know the company is a forced seller and are pricing bids accordingly.
- A further €14m of write-downs on the Inventory assets was taken in Q3 (€34m YTD).
- Refurbishment expenses fell from €18m in 9M22 to €2.1m in 9M23, increasing occupancy rates will be impossible without continued capex. However, we are sceptical that many of the assets in Eastern Germany are salvageable.
- Promised receivables from DIM and Green Living still have not been paid, we are wearily familiar with this and will believe they are assets when the cash comes in.
I look forward to discussing this with you all
Aengus
T: +44 203 744 7055