Accentro – There is a time for everything
All,
Please find our slightly amended analysis here.
There is never a good time to lose a senior manager and we think the timing for the departure of CFO Hans-Peter Kneip is bad news for Accentro. As part of the Mar-23 refinancing of its SUNs, Accentro needs to persuade investors it can successfully refurbish the stressed rental assets it acquired in December 2020. The new CFO will have a steep learning curve as the bonds are trading at 87c/€ (YTM 17%). So far, no details of their plans have been given to investors. The successful sale of new bonds will depend on putting that plan across to investors.
High CapEx for Eastern Portfolio:
- We have questions about the ability of the Accentro to finance this project even setting aside the refinancing of the SUNs.
- The Eastern German portfolio acquired in Dec-2020 will require €75m - €100m of Capex. Management will need to clearly state the length of time this project will take and how quickly they expect the NRI to rise. We anticipate €5m a quarter in expenditure.
- If the NRI does not rise quickly enough, Accentro will need to raise cash via the sale of Inventory properties to fund the refurbishment.
Merger or Asset Sales:
- Accentro will likely have to find a better-capitalised merger partner or sell assets to reduce its balance sheet into a refinancing.
- Asset sales should come from the Investment Portfolio to the extent apartments are providing yield and are readily appraisable.
- We are sceptical about the liquidity of the large East german portfolio, however. Much of the sales in the last four quarters have been transfers between Inventory and Investment portfolios, often not resulting in a third-party cash transaction.
- Accentro has a growing loan book backed by the apartments it sells. This could probably be sold to a bank, which could generate over €70m in cash.
Investment Considerations
- The 3/2023 SUNs have 16-months to maturity and currently trade at 85.5c/€ (a YTM of 18%). The company seems unable to generate the type of performance required to refinance and the CFO has just resigned. Headline LTV is merely 57% (we see it closer to 75%), however, we are unable to verify the Eastern Portfolio’s book valuation on the scant data provided and the company is still not generating sufficient OCF from the vast inventory to make us comfortable.
- Two ways out for Accentro are either a timely merger with a better-capitalised vehicle or an accretive sale of its investment book to pay the bonds down - at a stretch. While we understand that Accentro has recently sold a large portfolio and may be attempting to go down that second route, the challenged strategic position from its now outlawed core business of Privatisation has us waiting on the sidelines until we can observe some fruits from its new High Vacancy strategy.
As always, we look forward to exchanging ideas with you.
Regards
Aengus.
E: amcmahon@sarria.co.uk
T: +44 203 744 7055