Ardagh Group - comment

The SUNs have fallen five points since May, positive news for our short, but more reflective of the pressures to execute a restructuring than new news. AMP's stock weakness reflects industry rather than company-specific reasons. That said, the value of the 74% stake has fallen from $1.8bn to $1.5bn. 24Q2 results in Glass and Metal packaging will be worse than hoped, putting pressure on Ardagh Group's efforts to restructure its balance sheet.

Concerns about the metal packaging market have meant that AMP shares are down 15% (to $3.42) since their 24Q1 results in May. Citi has cut the price target from $4.50 to $4.00. Wells Fargo/MS and BofA all have targets below $4.00. Ball Corp is down 17% since its 24Q1 results were published.

We are short the Ardagh Group SUNs, and long the Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMP) SUNs and are looking forward to the results in two weeks. Our AMP position reflects the possible upside from a change of control.

https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/nyse-ambp-lower-price-target-2024-07-08/