Boparan - beginning to shift view
All,
Please find our updated analysis here.
For some time now Boparan has been a name with a less than certain refinancing perspective. Promises of improvement have been made and broken and if nothing else, the recent management reshuffle is evidence that even the company doubts its ability to turn around in time. On the Q419 call, management’s exact repetition of its clearly rehearsed language around the reshuffle: “I’ve asked Ranjit…” and “together we make a formidable team” did little to convince anyone that the turnaround, which management are so “really pleased” with, will come on time. Elsewhere on the call management had to concede that the turnaround would benefit from acceleration.
However…
- UK feed prices have come down by over 20% from 2018 levels and on the company’s usual hedging policy that should begin to roll into the P&L now. We have not modelled the full impact in our projections as we are uncertain how exactly the contracts are structured with 2 Agriculture Ltd. - the Borparans’ own, but unconsolidated feed supplier.
- Through 2 Agriculture Ltd. the Boparans should have received ample profits in the last year which they should be able to re-inject into Boparan if need be - unless perhaps rumours are true that an affiliate vehicle has bought bonds in the market.
- Management seem to make efforts to prepare Fox’s Biscuits for sale. Direct attention is being devoted to the division and its profitability, which seems to have suffered in the last two years and a sale could be significantly accretive to Boparan, affording it both liquidity and - in conjunction with anticipated performance improvement from feed and plant closures - the ability to refinance in what should remain a strong market.
Thoughts:
- So while on its current trajectory, Boparan have little more than 6-9 months to sell Fox’s before cash runs terminally tight, there is an increasing chance that - after all - the current trajectory will not apply.
- As per above, we have withheld a fair amount (~half) of the arithmetic benefit accruing to Boparan from feed price reductions bringing Boparan to a bare NCF break even over FY20. But the trajectory should be positive enough to have bonds trade ahead of recovery by then and that is still not taking into account a sale of Fox’s, or a potential affiliate purchase of bonds at a discount or alternatively a cash injection.
- If altogether the recovery is not pronounced enough or too slow to allow Boparan to refinance, then at 5x LTM EBITDA in 12 months time our projections suggest the price should break at 85p/£, with the company requiring little fresh cash beyond a reduction in interest.
- In the long-term we are convinced that Boparan - accounting for 20% market share in the UK - is able to generate an average 8% EBITDA margin on its business, which at an implied EV of currently £500m would be valued at only 3x.
- Thus we see limited downside from here at the moment, while upside could come fast and plentiful.
Pending further discussion on the desk we may be turning around to take a long position in the coming days and weeks.
Wolfgang