Boparan – Beyond the spreadsheets
All,
Please find our updated analysis here.
Ahead of next week’s reporting, we have re-built our model to reflect the latest feed prices and estimate the incremental impact on Boparan’s liquidity this year. But arithmetic being key, it’s important to look beyond the spreadsheets. The narrow margin the company achieves may yet prove efficient in raising prices to supermarkets.
Margins to date:
- Boparan have some 80% of contracts on pass-throughs, which will come in very handy in this environment. However, while the company proclaims only a month of lag or so, financial records suggest a quarter or two. As for our modelling, we have stuck with the latter.
- As feed prices fluctuate, COGS, therefore, behave like an integral function (think 9th-grade math). As feed prices rise, margins are thin until prices stop rising (no matter the absolute level). Then margins recover - with some lag. On the way down, as prices fall, margins are wide for the duration of the fall but will adjust to normality once prices are down, but have stabilised.
- Feed prices have been rising sharply, so margins are very thin. But as with all commodities, prices won’t be rising forever.
Liquidity:
- In Q2 Boparan looked adequately flush with fresh liquidity to fund its losses through our Dec 22 CDS maturity. Oh well...
- Now that prices have risen by another 20% and are currently well above that, the company could be burning through its RCF in only two quarters.
Low Margin and inflation:
- Boparan is a low margin business, achieving some 5% of EBITDA in a good year. So “all management have to do” is raise prices by some 2.5%-5% to fully restore their margin.
- Raising prices in this business is not easy. Poultry competition is more automated and suffers less from labour cost inflation than Boparan. We also expect UK supermarkets to protect consumer wallets as much as they can. But chicken is not the only food that is subject to inflation these days and above-mentioned price rises look in line with the market - if not a little light.
- The extent to which Boparan can push for 2.5% price increases in the short term is as unclear as it is crucial. Supermarkets have his financials and unless saving on the £40m of annual interest looks like a great opportunity to them, they might want to avoid dealing with an administrator instead, who would be asking for the same 2.5%.
Positioning:
- Last year we went long 5% of NAV, having sold 1-year CSD for 10 pufs, expecting the position to return 16% to December 2022. Downside to that trade required a dramatic worsening of the feed labour cost and price situation, requiring an event before Dec 22. With respect to feed prices, this has now happened.
- With the market reflecting creditor talks already, we are staying put for the time being. Relative to our model at least, next week's call may confirm our spreadsheets or contain positive news.
Wolfgang
E: wfelix@sarria.co.uk
T: +44 203 744 7003