Boparan Q4 financials

All,

Ahead of the results call the outstanding item on the Q4 financials of Boparan is cash.

- Performance has been marginally positive with sales some single digits higher than our model and EBITDA E1.8m higher.

- E10m inflows from WC offset the usual E10m drag from pensions and exceptionals.

- CapEx of E21m brought FCF to zero.

Financing CF:

- Another E155m of bond buy-backs in Q4 and E78m of now fully drawn RCF (we thought the RCF Was E10m smaller - did we get that wrong?) should have left a cash balance of only ~ E45m - to be topped up again with the proceeds from Matthew Walker, which however wasn’t sold until Q1.

- So it turns out (perhaps everybody knew this) that Boparan raised a loan of E53m against Matthew walker and passed through the proceeds of E50m to the remaining restricted group ahead of the sale.

- So cash is ~ E50m higher than we thought and we are adjusting our expectation of future proceeds from the MW sale accordingly. It’s not a major change, but ensured liquidity.

Leverage:

- We include the company’s extensive factoring facilities in our leverage calculations, so our multiples tend to be higher than those presented by the company.

- Boparan subtract the E50m intercompany loan from their calculation. This is perhaps not accurate quite yet, but given the company has since been sold, we are comfortable with it.

Normalised CF:

- Run rate FCF of E-10m, before -E-66m of interest etc. = NCF of E-76m

Thoughts:

- Realistically Boparan now has 6 months - maybe 9 - to sell Fox’s Biscuits before the wheels come off.

- We had the HSBC factoring facility as up for renewal this month. Clearly that extension is crucial, but also likely.

- Had Boparan not paid down the bonds, they’d be less dependent on the CF from Fox’s. But overall he will have to post materially improving margins over the next 18 months to allow him to kick the can further down the road. Brexit may help with that, but most will have to come from improved cost and from price re-negotiations.

Wolfgang

Wolfgang FelixBOPARAN