Elior – Brighter
All,
Please find our updated analysis here.
Elior surprised us with the pace of margin recovery in H223 and we do not expect that performance to reverse in FY24. The acquisition of DMS has worked well so far, with Elior significantly increasing the synergies it expects. Inflation is falling, with food inflation falling faster than CPI. The economic outlook for the EU also remains positive. Our expectation is that leverage will be 4.25x – 4.5x when the bonds are refinanced in 2025. The bonds are trading at 88c/€, we will look to take a position if they trade-off.
Investment considerations:
- The H223 performance by Elior was impressive and we see the company as being able to refinance the July 26 SUNs. However, we will not take a position yet. The bonds have risen 10 points since the results and we have missed the boat for now. We will review as the heat reduces.
- Elior is emerging from the inflation crisis, and margins are being restored. It has had success in negotiating price rises in the private sector and increasingly in the public sector.
- The upside is 12 points with a downside of 15 points, but the downside is predicated on significant food inflation and a recession in France.
- We expect Elior to meet its bank covenants going forward, particularly given the loosening of the March 2024 test (from 4.50x to 5.25x).
Current trading:
- Elior's top line was well above our expectations driving a higher EBITDA. We had estimated that price rises to recover inflation would be delayed into 2024, but Elior did a much better job than we expected.
- As a result of the outperformance, Elior met its FYE23 leverage covenant (5.4x vs 6.0x). Moreover, the company's banks also agreed to loosen the leverage covenant from 4.5x to 5.25x in H124 (our forecast is for leverage at 5.2x).
- Cash on hand was in line with our estimates, driven by a worse-than-expected working capital performance, which will reverse in H124.
- Guidance for 2024 is for margins to improve slightly and for organic growth of 4% - 5%.
- We expect that the leverage covenants will be met in both halves of the year.
- The company also announced that it will only publish Half and Full year figures, the quarterly updates will cease from FY2023
- We see leverage coming down more slowly than Elior, but we concur that de-leveraging will happen consistently over the next two years to 4.5x or below.
I look forward to discussing this with you all
Aengus
T: +44 203 744 7055