Kantar released UK supermarket data

All,

Kantar released UK supermarket data today though the 21st of April, and thus including Easter. Iceland's FY19 numbers won’t be released until 13th June. The Kantar numbers overlap Iceland’s year end by three weeks but should overall be good guidance.
https://uk.kantar.com/consumer/shoppers/2019/late-easter-sunshine-heats-up-grocery-market/

Iceland’s estimated growth of 1.4% 12-on-12 weeks are a little disappointing, lagging the market at 2% 12-on-12 weeks. We think that the phenomenal weather during March and over the easter days may have lead to increased impulse purchases, which may have put Iceland at a slight disadvantage. Also you don’t go to Iceland for your Chocolate Eggs.

From the report:
Grocery inflation now stands at 1.4% for the 12-week period ending 21 April 2019. Prices have been rising since the 12 weeks to 1 January 2017, following a period of grocery price deflation which ran for 30 consecutive periods from September 2014 to December 2016. Prices are rising fastest in markets such as cola, lamb and crisps, while falling in instant coffee, fresh sausages and nuts.

- So while the overall number may be important, Iceland is not positioned on either extreme of Grocery Price in-/deflation.

- Comparing Iceland’s estimated growth of 1.4% (according to Kantar) to Grocery Food inflation of 1.4%, Iceland seem to have gone sideways - despite the store roll-out.

- For reference, Tomas’ model included a 0.5% contraction of sales for Q4. So the difference is not significant enough to prompt any change in outlook.

Tomas has the analysis,

Wolfgang