Nidda – Time out.
All,
Please find our updated analysis here.
Pushing maturities out to September 2026 gives Nidda time to consider an IPO in 2024 without facing a maturity hurdle. The exchange offer completed yesterday is a positive for all the debt stack. Alongside the agreement from 90% of lenders to extend the RCF this represents a significant boost to liquidity over the next three years.
Lower cash on hand now but plenty of headroom:
- We estimate €327m of cash on hand in 2023 with a further €400m undrawn RCF.
- Our cash flow in 2022 is impacted by the €120m costs of the exchange.
- 2023 is impacted by our estimate of an additional €100m of interest.
Finance is getting tighter, but coverage is still strong:
- Due to higher interest FCF/interest cover for 2023 will be 1.8x vs 2.5x, lower but still good.
- Total interest headwinds in 2023 will be c€100m
- The impact of the higher coupon on the bonds will add €56m.
- EURIBOR is 150bp higher since the summer which will add €45m in interest costs in 2023
Pushing out maturities cures the immediate challenge:
- The newly exchanged bond is €1.385bn 7.5% Sep-2026, issued at par, but trading in the low 90s.
- Nidda had €1.85bn of 3.5% bonds maturing in September 2024, that is now €500m. A much more manageable sum than previously.
- The exchange offer cost €111m in premium, and we estimate €10m in fees.
- There is also a payment of €4.3m in accrued interest.
Refinancing profile now more easily manageable:
- the next key event for maturities is now the €3bn of bank debt maturing in Jun-25.
- We expect a full refinancing when markets return to normality. The continued conflict in Ukraine will impact the timing of any sale and refinancing action
Positioning:
We are long the SUNs 5% 9/2025 for 5% NAV at 91c/€, the bonds are currently trading at 82c/€. The lengthening of its maturity profile is a positive for the SUNs as it gives Nidda another year before it starts to hit significant maturities.
- We expect a sale/refinance in late 2023 with the capital structure trending to par. In the meantime, with FCF of €500m before M&A interest coverage is comfortable and leverage will fall, particularly if the gap between LTM EBITDA and Management Adjusted EBITDA continues to close.
Aengus
T: +44 203 744 7055
www.sarria.co.uk