Standard Profil - comment

The Company released its Q3 numbers last night, ahead of its investor call next week.  Headlines will be favourable, with EBITDA up to €18.4m from €11.7m in Q3 22.  However, we had adjusted Q3 and Q4 EBITDA last year for the €15.2m of additional revenue in the form of cost compensation from its customers, so therefore. Q3 on Q3 is flat.  In fact, we had expected some modest growth in Q3.  The Company has maintained its guidance for FY23 at €78-83m, so we are unlikely to change our €80m projections.  

The composition of Standard Profil’s customer base continues to evolve, with Mercedes and Volvo no longer in their top 10 customers.  Tesla is currently the main customer, with the ramp-up of its production levels, but it should be noted that Ford has also increased due to recent project wins.  The overall order book has now grown by 8% to c. €3.8bn, which is equivalent of c. 7 years of revenue, driven primarily by annual revaluation of contracts.  We will seek clarity on why new order awards continue to lag behind prior years, albeit this is partially explained by high order wins in the prior years. The rollout of these wins will slow down new order wins. CAPEX levels have also reduced in line with lower-order wins.