Takko, Tui, e-Dreams
All,
The Germany lockdown is coming. Cabinet ministers have today agreed on a law to allow the Federal Government to intervene in areas where Covid-19 infections exceed 100 per every 10,000 inhabitants over a 7 day period (Incidence Rate). Please see the link to the map. This is the case for most of Germany, certainly by inhabitants.
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/478220a4c454480e823b17327b2bf1d4/page/page_1/
The law still needs to be passed by the Bundestag, which should take one week at best, two weeks more likely. It includes a night curfew, households meeting with a max. of one other person, closure of museums, theatres, zoos etc., closure of tourist hotels, take-away only for cafes and restaurants, closure of shops, except food retail and pharmacies etc. There is a chance, the law will not even require the involvement of the country’s second chamber, the Bundesrat, but the government may seek that approval nonetheless, which is why the exact timing of the passing of the law is hard to estimate.
Takko:
As previously discussed, we do not think that Takko have the finances in place to withstand another lockdown on that scale. Germany has an average incidence rate of 140 now, so it is likely a lockdown will last at least a month in most areas of the country.
Tui and e-Dreams:
The law also foresees travel restrictions, which should weigh significantly on these two names, but also on others. The travel sector certainly has seen a slew of cancellations in the last two weeks and any recovery is now not estimated to take place before Q3. Incidentally, most estimates at this time last year pointed to recovery in Q320...
What is your favourite way to play this?
Wolfgang
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