UK and German Christmas trading references

All,

Primark this morning provide a positive read-across for our positions in Matalan, New Look and Douglas.

The brick&mortar high-street retailer reported of only slightly negative LfL sales in the UK, while noting positive LfLs in Europe. However, even the slightly negative UK LfLs are a result in the current environment. 

In context:

The pre-christmas weekends were less favourably staked this year.

- UK: Primark read-across positive 

- UK: Next read-across marginally positive, less clear

- UK: John Lewis read-across negative, if less relevant 

- UK: Pre-Christmas discounting reached new levels. A week before Christmas the Guardian reported: "discounts of up to 50% at Debenhams, Hobbs, Miss Selfridge, Wallis, Burton, Oasis and Robert Dyas; up to 40% off at Topshop, Marks & Spencer, River Island, Jigsaw and Ted Baker and 30% discounts at House of Fraser and Peacocks. Online retailers were also joining in the price cutting with 80% off everything at Boohoo, 70% cuts at Missguided and up to 50% discounts at Asos”. Admittedly that was after record sales on and following Black Friday (also on discounts of course).

- Germany: TW index numbers were negative: Oct: -9%, Nov: -2%, Dec: -6% / 2019 average: -2%

- Germany: Primark read-across positive - elsewhere we understand that winners were big chains + specialist chains

- Germany: Anecdotal references from single Douglas shop managers were positive for Nov. (online) and Dec. (offline)

- Germany: Statistics office - record year - strong Novermber, weak-ish December

Wolfgang