Vivion - Creating space
All,
Please find our unchanged updated analysis here.
The Fuerst project and its sale to Aggregate Holdings have enmeshed Vivion in the clouds over German Real Estate. Post its year-end Vivion moved to put further distance between itself and Aggregate Holdings. Vivion’s bonds are paying a price for the delays in getting the Fuerst cash. Vivion's bonds will not recover as long as there is outstanding cash due for Fuerst. All of this is despite €800m of consolidated on-balance sheet liquidity and little near term refinancing requirements.
Fuerst project de-risking continues:
- Vivion further reduced its exposure to Fuerst to €445m in March 22. However, as with previous sales, there is a large gap between the headline figures and the cash received.
- The remaining risk comprises, €4m Project Bonds, a €221m deferred payment and €220m in tradeable bonds. The instruments held are secured. The Deferred Payment is secured by a charge on the project bonds (according to Vivion) and the tradeable bonds are secured by separate real estate assets. This is detailed on page 9 of the Noteholders report for 2021 which is on our website.
- Project Bonds: In March, Vivion sold €332m at 97c/€ to a “European asset manager”. There was a cash payment of €110m with a deferred payment of €221m still outstanding. The deferred payment is secured by the Project Bonds, which are secured on the Fuerst assets. The purchaser is not revealed so the level of risk in the deferred payment could still be high.
- Tradeable Bonds: The riskiest part of the Fuerst proceeds is €220m (par value) of unsecured tradable bonds issued by Aggregate Holdings. Vivion intends to cash these bonds in 2022 but they are significantly impaired in terms of market value, they currently trade at 27c/€. As part of its sales package on Fuerst Vivion was also granted security over three German properties which will benefit Vivion if the value of the SUNs is impaired. Vivion management has said that the Net asset value of these properties is materially above the remaining position. Whilst we do not know what the assets are, we believe they are not owned by Aggregate.
Asset Revaluations:
- Vivion took €281m in asset revaluations during the year. €149m in the UK and €132m on its German assets. The 2021 uplift in valuations was modest. UK yields fell by 40bp to 5.8% and in Germany from 4.4% to 4.3%. Despite rising rates and inflation, there is no evidence yet of a major pullback in yields. The emphasis is on yet.
- UK hotel yields were stable to stronger in 2021. Whitbread PLC (owner of the Premier Inn hotel chain) wrote back 50% of the asset impairments it took to its UK hotel portfolio. Less aggressive than Vivion, but demonstrates that the environment is still supportive.
Business bookings will be higher in 2022, however, the leisure boom tailwind from 2021 will fade as UK residents return to foreign holidays. Rising rates are a longer-term issue but so far, the increases are not sufficient to cause significant valuation issues.
- German office rental yields remain tight but stable. € rates are rising and there is less cash chasing yielding assets, but the shift is gradual.
An abundance of liquidity:
- With >€800m in cash, Vivion has the potential to benefit from any significant fall in asset prices.
- Vivion has avoided the temptation to become involved in development, sticking to what it knows.
Investment Rationale:
- We will be seeking to exit our 5% of NAV long position in the 2024 SUNs, our entry YTW was 5.5% and since then, the bonds have widened to 6.9% (91c/€). Our rationale was a tightening market and a strong asset base further supported by cash. The latter two points are still valid, but with the ongoing issues in German real estate, it is hard to make a case for Vivion tightening now.
Looking forward to discussing this with you all
Aengus
E: amcmahon@sarria.co.uk
T: +44 203 744 7055