Please find our updated analysis here.
The latest liability management exercise by SBB Norden has the same element of smoke and mirrors which matches the previous exercise. The main
The tender and exchange offer from SBB for the SUNs/Hybrids is designed to reduce the impact if the English High Court finds SBB is in breach of the
The tender/exchange offers announced today seem to offer plenty to investors without a significant increase in risk. We suspect this operation has a lot to do with
The additional €53m of EMTN holders seeking to accelerate their holdings makes little difference to the case being heard in the English Hig
If Fir Tree wins the litigation to accelerate the EMTN notes, SBB would immediately have to file for court protection as all EMTN holders
Some relief for SBB that the writedown pace is reducing (>SEK5.5bn YTD but <SEK1bn in Q3). SBB needs the Real Estate market to continue to
The latest care home sale is near book value (2% discount), but it is small and extrapolating it to the whole Care Home portfolio may
The Resi business (Sveafastigheter) priced its IPO at the bottom of its SEK39.5 – SEK45.5 per share range. SBB will be glad for the
We doubt any SBB investors were expecting an immediate stream of dividends from the Resi business, and Sveafastigheter (the Resi business) has
We preferred an option that would have seen a strong institutional partner take a stake in the Resi business (rather than an IPO). Lacking anchor
The IPO price range puts the EV at SEK20bn – SEK21bn, a 24% discount to the asset value. The figure is a disappointment as we had
If the financial newspaper’s report is accurate, the valuation would be a 15% discount to book value, a disappointing
SBB is going down the IPO route for the Residential business; the company may have failed to find a strategic partner willing to pay up or may want to
A Swedish media report claims that the Resi business will announce an IPO shortly. Given the quiet IPO market, we would be surprised if this
Cash Flows were broadly in line with our expectations and the refinance of SEK8.6 of bank debt at the 49% owned Nordiqus (EduCo) level is
At the AGM, Lennart Sten was elected as chair despite the opposition from proxy advisors. The institutions and largest shareholders are painfully
The tender offer purchases favoured hybrids (75% of the nominal acquired) over SUNs as we expected. However, we were a little surprised at the level of
The exchange offer is not as popular as SBB hoped, but we expect it to get done. SBB paying the Hybrid deferred interest to exchange bondholders will
Please find slightly our updated model here.
Getting the Residential deal done is still the game changer, but not much concrete has happened regarding finding a partner or getting an IPO away. The proposed exchange offer from
The Swedish landlord published an exchange offer to all bond and perp holders to exchange their securities for bonds issued by its new housing subsidiary
Please find our updated analysis here.
SBB is transforming from a Real Estate investor to a Real Estate holding company. The challenge is staying in the game long enough to complete the
That the PPI bid for Terningen AB in Norway is all equity shows how the funding market has shifted, but the aggressive instincts in the sector are
SBB has SEK14bn of bank debt and SEK9bn of bond debt due by January 2025. The SEK5.7bn cash inflow is welcome for SBB and raises balance sheet cash
The private market is frothier than the bond market. Intrum, SBB, DoValue are only the latest examples this weekend where asset-based
24Q1 release was operationally in line, but the key 2024 challenge of getting an IPO/part disposal of the Swedish residential business remains outstanding. The shorter end of
The impact on SBB’s accounts is a positive €100m. The adjustment is non
SBB’s completion of its tender offer points to capitulation by some hybrid holders and at the long end of the SUNs (€155m of the 2029 SUNs were successfully
Another tender offer from SBB. We doubt this will be any more successful than the
Operational results were in line with our Q4 forecast, but cash on hand was much lower (SEK4bn vs SEK10.6bn forecast). The lack of support from the Scandi banks is concerning, given the secured
The latest asset sales will leave SBB with cash to refinance maturities to September 26. More liquidity equals more time for SBB. The debt will be