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Paul Coulson and Ardagh’s CFO have resigned from the board of to-be-restructured ARD Finance, the issuer of the
The appointment of two restructuring experts as non-execs reflects the imminent restructuring. We expect the sale of Trivium Packaging will
SSN holders have realised their interests do not align with SUN holders. We have been puzzled at the level of cooperation between debt classes, and now
If the Trivium sale is done via an auction, it will probably be a few weeks away. However, the disposal should happen by 25Q1 and will
The permanent closure of the Seattle wine bottle facility has a modest impact but reflects the weakness in that segment of the
The downgrade to Caa2 (Negative) at Moody’s reflects the looming debt restructuring at Ardagh Group. The agency acknowledges the
The €269m (2029 maturity) Apollo loan adds more senior debt ahead of the SUNs. The new loan repaid ABL drawings, but the ABL is still available. In the event of
The numbers were worse than we expected as volumes in the US continue to fall and Europe/Africa only generates modest improvements. The H2 volume
Ardagh’s SUNs are up another couple of points on the news that a Trivium deal is close. We are very puzzled by the strength of the SUNs, which
Completing the sale of Trivium will provide Ardagh with the cash to fund the Amend & Extend operation piece of its
Ardagh has four production facilities in the UK, and the incoming (in 2025) recycling rules in the UK will hurt the competitiveness of glass unless
Stefan Schellinger was CFO at ContourGlobal when it was taken private by KKR in 2022. Reservoir Capital held 70% of ContourGlobal when KKR bough
Revenue was in line with our forecast, but EBITDA was ahead due to mix and additional absorption of costs. European volumes were +5%, assisted by a
On the 24Q2 results call, management did not comment on the state of discussions around Ardagh Group's debt restructuring. However, the
The SUNs have fallen five points since May, positive news for our short, but more reflective of the pressures to execute a restructuring than new
The appointment of advisors by a new cross-capital structure creditor group is a slight positive for SUN's holders. There will be investors long
The US glass business is not rebounding as fast as hoped, and due to the state of the market, Ardagh is closing a
These layoffs do not fundamentally change the picture for Ardagh Glass (AG), but pressure from cheap imports continues to hurt sales in
The redemption notice for the April 2025 SSNs kicks off the restructuring of Ardagh Group’s (AG) cap stack. The Apollo loan will fund this first step. The next step is
The arguments made in Fitch’s downgrade echo our concerns. The capital structure is unsustainable and Ardagh continues to show weak
Please find our slightly updated analysis here.
Little has changed in our core thesis after the recent results and financing actions at the Ardgah Group. However, the timetable is forming up to action by
The ARGID SUNs are trading at around 50c/$. We remain short as we expect next week’s Q1 numbers will lead to further falls, and we expect
Ardagh Group shareholders are taking a gamble and using the shareholding value in Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMPBEV) as collateral for a loan from Apollo at the intermediate holdco outside either
The SSNs being downgraded to B- by S&P shouldn’t impact the pricing of the bonds much. The appointment of advisors by the company and creditors last
Please find our unchanged analysis here.
The Ardagh Metal Packaging (AMP) SUNs fell 3-4 points on the appointment of advisors to the Ardagh Group. AMP headline leverage of 5.5x (FY23) will fall over the
Please find our updated analysis here.
The appointment of advisors by the company is no surprise to us, but as it has come earlier than expected, liquidity must be an even bigger issue than
The appointment of advisors by the company and bondholders fires the starting gun on restructuring the Ardagh Group (ARGID) debt stack. The fact that the
Political momentum is growing in South Africa to minimise the impact of gas price rises and loss of domestic supply after 2026. Political action is
Please find our slightly updated analysis here.
After a lengthy discussion, we have decided to put on a short trade in Ardagh. We still do not expect a major catalyst in the next twelve months, but we cannot see a
Please find our new analysis here.
Ardagh Glass is struggling underneath its debt stack. The Glass business can support the Senior Secured debt, but weak covenants mean that the impairment for the SUNS is significant. However, there is no immediate crisis here as Ardagh