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Intro, Cap and Legal Structure - 27Nov23
Valuation, Investment Discussion- 27Nov23
Apparel in the UK - 27Nov23
FX and Inflation - 27Nov23
Drivers and Model - 27Nov23
Please find our updated model for Matalan here.
2024/25 will be a challenging year. The company is facing a mountain of cost increases it has to overcome. On top of that, management are so bold as
Matalan reported a strong Q324 today - £5m better EBITDA than we had projected. More importantly, we had expected the company to kitchen sink Q4 with
We have been covering this name for a very long time, long before we added videos to our platform. So to bring the name in line with
Please find our updated analysis of Matalan here.
Fundamentally, Matalan maintains its steady position in UK apparel retail, neither growing nor shrinking over the past 20 years, and gained market share during the pandemic as competitors exited. The low-price sector remains insulated from online
October inflation has come down to 4.6% spilling water on Sunak’s mills. The move is not entirely unexpected, but nonetheless positive for
The retailer had a strong underlying quarter. Volumes were down but planned for, such that inventory is at -16% YoY. Average sales price was up 16% in return, yielding
Matalan has paid its coupon in cash. We generally regard this as a positive sign the company is
Please find our significantly updated analysis of Matalan here.
I’m an alum of the University of Chicago and so - believe me - markets are efficient. Well, almost. If exceptions define the rule, Matalan should be a case in point. The retailer has gone
The first results after restructuring are rarely good for any company, but it’s hard not to feel a little disappointed with zero EBITDA. Apparently,
Strange going-ons at Matalan where the company chose to pay cash coupons, but is now drawing the additional
The retailer has notified the market in line with previously communicated timing that its restructuring has been
Please find our updated analysis of Matalan here.
While we are still chasing unexplained cash outflows of £30m in Q4, we are comfortable with the retailer’s overall position and the future economics we have lined up for. Quoted prices for the bonds today are net of value that has been attached to other notes, but
Please find our unchanged analysis here. An update will follow shortly.
As per this morning, there was nothing in the release that would have changed our view today - nor the way we would like to be positioned. We are not sure why the release comes so late - today being the last day and there seems to be plenty of confusion in the market as to which
Quite some detail has of course been leaked already, but we are at this time still eagerly awaiting the company’s cleansing statement. On Friday, quotes for
The company today announced receipt of consents by the requisite super-majority of SSN holders and, accordingly, the extension of the bonds by
Please find our updated analysis here.
It’s no longer just about inflation. Even as we had anticipated lower cash levels, reported earnings were disappointing, but on the surface results did not deviate
We understand the 2nd Lien holders have put in a bid for the company. The offer allegedly rests on the £200m staple finance offered by the 1st Lien holders, includes cash
Ahead of Monday, we are expecting no further news on the current process until mid-December. However, in line with recent publications, we expect
The company this morning released a cleansing statement on a restructuring roadmap that reflects the all-around reluctance of restructuring Matalan, both, naturally from
The retailer was in the news over the weekend. The times ran an article suggesting that the Hargreaves family is looking for a buyer of the business or a
Sky News were reporting that in recent days another offer from Hargreaves to Matalan lenders has fallen flat. According to the newspaper, the offer may
Recruited only two years ago, Chairman Steve Johnson has stepped down and has been replaced by John Hargreaves himself. We can only imagine that he found his role
Please find our unchanged analysis here.
Of the tailwinds management cited for 2022, one related to 6-7 weeks of lock-down in Q122, relative to which the chain should outperform in FY23 (to February 23), even as the online store had compensated for some of the lost sales last year. From there we are netting off and putting into perspective Matalan’s Ost recent results to try and arrive at an underlying base EBITDA for FY 2023. So looking past the restructuring/extension efforts, how does the normalisation of the fundamentals stack up so far and when taking everything into account, how deep is this valley and how steep is the other side?
The retailer today revealed a new £60m 18-month facility to help preserve liquidity as it returns its super senior CLBLIS and 0.5 lien notes. While the
Pepco’s H1 results had been previously sketched out, but the report contains some colour on how trading is going for the discounter. Unsurprisingly the report is very upbeat and management have raised
We have heard and are now reading in the press that GS are about with a proposal to refinance the bonds. The proposal appears to involve an
Please find our slightly updated analysis of Matalan here.
The retailer has done phenomenally well in the last year to turn around its business from the lows of 2020 lockdowns. However, now that the market is indiscriminately looking to short or exit all retailers, its natural competitive inflation hedge counts for little. Just as
The bonds took a hit yesterday after it emerged that the founder John Hargreaves has lost his long-running court battle with HMRC. His ability therefore to
Papers this morning report that John Hargreaves has been ordered by a London court to pay capital gains tax on his sale of the company in 2000. Prior to his
Please find our updated analysis here.
Vindication has been a long time coming. Reading through our religiously bullish notes on Matalan over the last two years, we must admit that several times along the way we thought we’d be well out of the crisis by now. But the pandemic is