Matalan - Those 2LNs
All,
Please find our updated model on Matalan here.
With the 2LNs in no-mans-land, what will Matalan look like when the refinancing or restructuring needs to happen and when is that exactly? How much is enough and how likely is that? What are the main drivers? Having modeled the company once more in detail and following a number of other retailers in similar segments, the last question is easiest to answer: It’s all about the success of the re-opening experiment. Another lock-down could well kill all hope of an orderly refinancing of Matalan. But if the vaccines work, hospitals can cope and no meaningful restrictions will need to be re-imposed, then an orderly refinancing of even the 2LNs looks actually very likely. With the re-opening trade being fully priced in elsewhere, the 2LNS are lagging distinctly. If the downside were zero and upside par (yes par), then provided Matalan can continue executing their business (strong yes from our work), then the conviction in the re-opening is reflected as a mere 60%.
Outlook:
- Overall sales are strong, but customers are returning from retail parks to the high street, making for “volatile” footfall in Q222. Nonetheless, the momentum is with the discounters and Matalan is no exception. The company has managed to keep strong liquidity during the pandemic and - provided the re-opening is a success - we see it holding on to a minimum of ~ £100m at any quarter-end from here.
- We are projecting a return to £90m run-rate EBITDA level from Q222/Q322. Discounters are well-positioned, Matalan is seeing strong demand for full-price product. Footfall is wobbly, as hospitality re-opens, but a likely lasting increase in the public’s focus on home-spending should reward Matalan’s positioning in retail parks. So even with slight headwinds in intake margins due to freight and supply chain indigestions - closer sourcing to home, we see combined (online and offline) future sales approx. where they were in 2019, a year with a toxic retail environment. Margins should be a little bit lower than before, benefiting on the one hand from cost savings in-store personnel (assisted checkouts and better inventory handling / FFS), but weighed down on the other hand by increased distribution costs from a larger online segment.
- On the above-mentioned EBITDA Matalan can maintain cash at £100m or above while it pays down its overdues.
Refinancing?:
- The cash balance should allow the company to deal with any shorter-dated maturities between now and a time when it can show 12 months of post-pandemic trading next year (if as much is needed). Assuming full pay-down of all super sr. cash-drawn elements, the cap structure would be similar to 2018, except for some ~ £30-60m less cash and £80m less 2LNs. The company has also sold its HQ last year - so £25m less assets - but it will have the pocket sorter.
- Having demonstrated its stability, we could see rating agencies apply the same B- rating to the same £350m SSNs again, which should even come cheaper than the current 6.75% coupon. This leaves the 2LNs.
- IF - the “new normal” is not far off the “old normal” - and so it appears at other discounters - then the 2LNs will actually be less than 5x leveraged and its lower size would allow a return of the coupon to cash while staying WELL inside 2018 interest burden.
- All the above considered, the market may only want to see a strong quarter or two before extrapolating the rest (see the faith in Douglas’ extrapolations or where Takko and Pepco are trading). If the market in H2 remains as strong as it is now and Q222 is not too volatile, or Q322 (November) is at least good, then in H2 this year or early next year the new bonds (both issues) could fly off the shelves.
Positioning:
We are holding on to our 5% of NAV position in the SSNs, but will have an internal debate over the merits of taking some 2LNs.
Wolfgang
E: wfelix@sarria.co.uk
T: +44 203 744 7003