Lowell - comment

Without another Balance Sheet Velocity (asset sale/layering) transaction, Cash EBITDA leverage is naturally creeping up. However, we have not been

Wolfgang Felix28 November 2024LOWELL

Lowell - comment

Being a slow-moving underlying business, quarterly figures did not deviate far from projections, which themselves were closely guided already. The call did

Wolfgang Felix29 August 2024LOWELL

Lowell - Better Places

Please find our updated analysis of Lowell here.

Having done endless work on the name in 2020, we find the situation relatively clear-cut now. Back then, selling CDS to fill the gap was a natural strategy. Now the ends are

Wolfgang Felix20 July 2024LOWELL

Lowell - comment

It’s been coming. Lowell and its bondholders have picked GS+PJT and PWP respectively. As per our previous stance, Lowell is the far

Wolfgang Felix2 July 2024LOWELL

Lowell - comment

Compared to Intrum, Lowell is a far simpler company with less geographical diversification and only a small servicing business that won’t

Wolfgang Felix24 June 2024LOWELL

Lowell - comment

We understand the company has hired GS to advise on its balance sheet. The choice of advisors is remarkable as we believe GS to have

Wolfgang Felix20 June 2024LOWELL

Lowell - comment

Last week, we had the Q1 call without the financials. Those, management promised, would be signed the same day. As of this

Wolfgang Felix4 June 2024LOWELL

Lowell - comment

Looks like we have to engage with management to get us white-listed again. We were again culled from the Q&A. The quarter offered little

Wolfgang Felix30 May 2024LOWELL

Lowell - comment

Have we had an epiphany, or are we going mad? For the first time, we’ve been culled from the Q&A - a signal that management are more nervous about the refinancing

Wolfgang Felix30 April 2024LOWELL

Intrum/Lowell - comment

Iquera hired advisors yesterday - the bonds tanked some 30 points. We don’t know the company all that well yet, but it's been engaged in ABS transactions in

Wolfgang Felix25 April 2024INTRUM, LOWELL, DEBT COLLECTORS

Lowell: "Tactical" Retreat - Positioning

Please find our unchanged analysis of Lowell here.

As is easily the case in a trade that isn’t based on solid fundamentals, but rather on the market itself, the fundamentals play out, but by that time the

Wolfgang Felix28 March 2024LOWELL

Lowell - comment

And here it is: Lowell’s bragging slide this morning shows Pro Forma Cash EBITDA Leverage of 2.7x. Even collections are presented in a positive

Wolfgang Felix29 February 2024LOWELL

Lowell - comment

Collections held up (did not deteriorate further - in contrast to Intrum) and the company underspent on new portfolios (even relative to our model), sweating its

Wolfgang Felix6 February 2024LOWELL

Lowell - Sound or Not

Please find our updated analysis on Lowell here.

Q323 has been uneventful. Neither did the company sell any further portfolios, nor did it produce any other outstanding results or forecast. As a result, the

Wolfgang Felix12 January 2024LOWELL

Lowell - comment

The company did not execute another portfolio offloading transaction during Q323 but has signaled that it is in the process of negotiating more

Wolfgang Felix30 November 2023LOWELL

UK Consumer - comment

Today’s UK’ economic headlines are dominated by the drop in Retail sales, the lowest since February 2021, impacted by lower fuel consumption and

Tomás Mannion17 November 2023UK GROCERS, UK PROPERTY, UK RETAIL, UK, MORRISONS, ICELAND, OCADO, INTU, INTU SGS, INTU Debentures, LOWELL

Lowell - Can they have their cake and eat it? - Positioning

Please find a slight update to our analysis here.

We have been slow to put this trade on. As flagged before, we are not fans of Lowell and find the company beyond its immediate asset value to be

Wolfgang Felix9 November 2023LOWELL

Lowell - The Greatest Fool?

Please find our new analysis of Lowell / GFKL here.
It’s not our favourite kind of trade, but there is undeniably an opportunity here. Perhaps we should be putting it on. We’d be relying on the greater

Wolfgang Felix23 October 2023LOWELL

Lowell - comment

We have long held that the last refinancing was both, the right thing to do at the time and a deal to exit from asap thereafter. The company yesterday

Wolfgang Felix1 June 2023LOWELL

Lowell - What the £325m tell us

Please find our unchanged analysis here.

Apparently, we remain on the black-list, as once again we have been culled from the Q&A. However, noteworthy is the number

Wolfgang Felix2 August 2021LOWELL