Stonegate reported benign figures on Friday. Our concerns that, following the restructuring, management would have some unexpected
Please find our updated analysis here.
So it’s been complicated - very much along expectations and justifying our caution about participating in this deal. The best pubs have had to be spun off into a
The equity nature of the new 2nd Lien facility does not impact creditors directly, but it underlines that getting the A&E away has
The completion of the Amend and Extend operation removes the maturity wall. Placing the £ SSNs at 10.75% will have stung for TDR, but they
Stonegate is dealing with its maturity wall and undertaking the required Amend and Extend (A&E) operation. Hold-out bondholders will get repaid at par and
Who leaked our IM? £200m happens to be the precise requirement we modelled to reach the deal. We are hearing rumours / reading
Please find our updated analysis of Stonegate here.
So the market has been open and TDR haven’t pulled the trigger. Q2 had undeniably good news on the closing of key supply contracts that should
Papers are ablaze with derision that Stonegate have admitted their difficulty in refinancing their debt stack. All that happened yesterday is that the company had to
Please find our updated analysis of Stonegate here.
The name is nearing its refinancing - the market is asking for it. Admittedly we’ve missed the trade into refinancing on this name, but we actually still feel that
Please find our all-updated analysis of Stonegate here.
The SSNs have traded up a lot since details of the Platinum transaction were announced last month. But is it justified and will the new bonds trade at par - as the
We suspect more details will emerge on the call at 4 pm today, EBITDA has come in slightly higher than our model at £98m. The discrepancy is
Please find our unchanged analysis here.
Stonegate has increased the number of pubs (from >1,000 versus c.800 originally) and raised only £600m (versus an original target of £1bn). This is partially explained by this transaction not being an outright sale, with Stonegate placing the pubs into an SPV,
Reports that Apollo is nearing a £630m loan deal with Stonegate. We are disappointed that the original £1bn proceeds to reduce debt, has now morphed into a
Losing its founder and CEO from the beginning of 2024 is awkward timing given the
Please find our marginally updated analysis here.
Although little has changed since our Q3 update in September, we decided to refresh our analysis and model. Stonegate Pubs is still dangling the carrot of
The pub portfolio sale is in trouble; Stonegate may have to retain the equity in the portfolio, and the debt will be expensive. There are press reports of bids from Cerberus and Morgan Stanley for the
We have had doubts about the potential pub sale, so we are not surprised that the transaction is evolving. Stonegate is seeking £1bn in proceeds. Originally,
Revenue was in line with our model, and EBITDA margins were slightly ahead (23% vs. model at 21%). Stonegate attributed the better margins to lower energy costs. We had expected this to be
Dynamic pricing in pubs is not new, Happy Hour, 2-for-1 offers and half-price drinks are all aspects of price-led differentiation. Charging more at busy
Please find our updated model here.
We can see how Stonegate could raise £1bn in a sale of assets this year. Stonegate would need to split the operations and freeholds and sell them