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Live Investment Discussion Recording 30 Oct 24

Intro, Cap and Legal Structure -6 Feb 24

Company and Industry - 6 Feb 24

Scenarios - 6 Feb 24

Investment Discussion - 6 Feb 24
As per the FT this morning, we are now counting four equity bids for Thames Water: KKR, CK Infrastructure (Hutchinson), Covalis (B-Holder and fronting Suez / Kraken) and
And Plan A is sanctioned! Thames Water should, therefore, have funding until May 2026. This means the immediate pressure is somewhat off the situation for now, but as per yesterday’s comment, we are awaiting
This week, we should receive Judge Leech’s ruling on the A-Plan (tomorrow) and witness the hearing of the B-Plan on Wednesday. Depending on how that B-Plan hearing goes, we could see the
We would like to see the list of conditions attached to the equity bids that have come in. After Castle Water’s 4bn rescue plan, the Covalis / Suez/ Kraken bid this
Today is the big day - in theory. Like most participants, we don’t think that the current state of information and government commitment is far
This is the crucial week, with the sanction hearing scheduled for today through Wednesday. We are highly confident the A-Plan will sail through, as
Creditors voted as expected, with the As voting overwhelmingly in favour of the plan and the Bs voting against it, safe for the proportion that is
As we wrote before, Thames Water was always going to use its funding urgency to push its agenda. As a result, the path for the Bs now appears
The Class B practice letter is a valiant attempt to defuse the A’s argument that the B-Proposal is “unimplementable”. The B’s won a stage victory to
Ofwat’s final determination provides for price hikes of 35% over the next five years - before inflation, very much in line with the recent talk of town. On anyone's math
The company now also has struck an agreement with its swap counterparties to back the restructuring for up-front fees and an additional 1% premium. We are
After everything that has been discussed and released in recent months, we find little new information in the September accounts that were released
We were discussing on the desk yesterday how one would actually prevent Thames Water from directly or indirectly paying fines with the
We like how the Covalis bid could work with lower price hikes “so long as concessions could be reached on fines and the pace of capital investment in
We are inclined to dismiss the Castle Water offer, despite the large headline tag of £4bn. We don’t have any details beyond what is in the press, but
The fact that the company continues to drive their agreement under the Class A Proposal is a slight setback to the Class Bs, all the more since the
The Class B proposal was submitted to the company last week after finally obtaining commitments from funds within the group. The key difference from the
While on TW groups are emerging and positioning themselves with or without proposals, Southern Water are only one notch above junk now at
The alternative Class B is now out and we are preparing a scenario in which both sides have a blocking minority in the As and may have to achieve a
Please find Thames Water updated model here.
The fight over Thames water has recently taken shape as the company plan works better for the Class A creditors than it does for the Class B. As Class B creditors are
Proposals are chasing each other as the As and Bs are squaring up ahead of a December process. This morning, Thames Water announced a proposed
The Labour government plans to appoint an independent commission to review the position and functioning of Ofwat who allowed the regulated debt to
The Class B Holders seem to be fighting back from what would appear a potential restructuring of the Thames Water debt stack where the
The company has managed to roll over a £410 million revolving credit facility that was due yesterday. We believe that it is in the
As the pre-marketing process for the rights issue continues to gather steam, the first ports of call for the company and its advisors at Rothschild & Co. appear to be
The downgrade is a mere reaction to the company’s approval request and therefore admission of tight liquidity, but it could trigger further sales of
While the company's attempt to raise new money through a £3.3 billion right’s issue appears to be more process than prospect, its
We see the request from Thames Water to release £380 million of cash reserves as an opportunity for creditors (especially public market creditors) to get